1.

After making 15 more errors than anyone else in the league (9 more than anyone else in the majors), he ranked among the majors’ top 11 error makers in each of next five seasons (5^th, tied for 10^th, 5^th, tied for 11^th, and 7^th). He later became a gold glove winner, but only made three All-Star teams.

in: 8, out: 2

Robin Yount came to the majors as a raw teenager. He is a prototype of a player whose accomplishments are the results of longevity. He won two MVP awards, but had many ordinary seasons, and as the numbers show, was a pitcher-demoralizing butcher in his early years.

2.

All 63 Hall-of-Fame pitchers have a lower career ERA than this starter who won 20 games three times, but didn’t approach 300 wins.

in: 3, out: 7

Jack Morris received 111 votes this year. He has some serious qualifications that are outweighed by his disqualifications. He was not one of the best pitchers in baseball during his era, although his clutch performances earned him MVP and Cy Young votes and considerable fame.

3.

He handily won 300 games while maintaining effectiveness through his final season, but won 20 games only once, and led his league in just one category (only one time).

in: 10, out: 0

The voters obviously figured out this was Don Sutton, and rightfully understood that he was a very good pitcher for a very long time. Unlike other candidates who hit a “magic number” by playing too long, Sutton was successful as a rookie and still effective after winning #300.

4.

Due to an ego that matched his exceptional ability, this guy was one of the worst pitchers in baseball during his final 3+ seasons (age 40-42) with a 16-36 record and horrendous ERAs. He also had a 20-loss season in his prime.

in: 8, out 2

Steve Carlton was a great player, although a somewhat scary human being (not addressed here). The voters agreed that his lousy seasons are not sufficient disqualifications for the Hall-of-Fame. However, the effects of those seasons on his career W-L record and ERA should be considered when ranking him on all-time lists.

5.

Strat-O-Matic rated him a 3B-1* in six consecutive seasons, then a 3B-2 in his final five seasons. He is 5^th in career assists. He compiled a .362 OB Pct. and a .464 SP despite playing the entire decade of the ‘60s, but hit .300 only four times, and drove in 100 runs four times in his relatively short career.

in: 6, out: 4

I am not alone in thinking Ron Santo is the best player not in the Hall-of-Fame. Sure, Ken Boyer belongs in, too.

6.

Of the 17 1B in the Hall-of-Fame, only Rod Carew, George Kelly, and Jake Beckley have lower slugging percentages than this ‘60s-‘80s 1B; all have higher OB percentages; and only Willie McCovey and Harmon Killebrew (who averaged 170 more home runs) have lower batting averages. 

in: 1, out: 9

The SABR voters were much better informed than the BBWAA, who elected Tony Perez this year.

7.

Highly respected off the field, this lefty was the first pitcher to have ERAs under 4.00 in his first 20 seasons, but led a league in just one category (only one time) and reached the 15-win level just five times. He failed to win 300 games.

in: 1, out: 8

Tommy John’s only real disqualifications are a lack of greatness. I believe his ability to be good to very good for a very long time, and his overall contributions to the game make him a marginal Hall-of-Famer.

8.

One of many players forced to move to 1B because of an inability to play other positions, this slugger failed to rank in the top 500 in BA or OB Pct. or the top 200 in slugging Pct.

in: 0, out: 10

Why was Tony Perez elected? See the essay for his qualifications, but those are too modest to be a full explanation. Here’s some speculation. He had a cute nickname (“Doggie”). People feel sorry for him because he was quickly fired from his only managerial job for reasons that were either unjustified or not obvious or revealed to the public. His longevity and many post-season appearances made him very well-known.

Perez played for the most overrated team in baseball history, “The Big Red Machine.” Bench and Morgan were easily elected to the Hall-of-Fame. Rose will be if he’s allowed to be. Concepcion has considerable support, and Foster won an MVP award. The Reds had a great manager and mediocre pitching. They won only two World Series and two other pennants. One World Series win was a great and well-remembered series against the Red Sox; the other came against the most nationally despised version (mid-late-‘70s) of the Yankees. The Anderson-led-Reds compiled a .596 winning percentage, won five division titles, and finished second three times. During the same era (1970-1978), the Dodgers had a .573 winning percentage; 16 games below the Reds. The Dodgers won three pennants, and finished second five times. The Reds were very good, but not one of the greatest teams of all time.

9.

This durable right-handed starter led his league in negative categories (e.g. games lost, HR allowed) eight times.

in: 4, out: 6

Phil Niekro has some serious disqualifications, but was rightfully elected as a marginal Hall-of-Famer.

10.

This gentleman farmer had a 24-30 record in his first four seasons, and did not become effective until developing an illegal pitch.

in: 6, out: 4

The voters had to know this was Gaylord Perry, who also has unstated disqualifications. I don’t know if the vote was a referendum on Perry or cheaters.

11.

His glittering accomplishments overshadowed facts like losing records in eight seasons.

in: 10, out: 0

This vote most challenged the premise of disqualifications. Nolan Ryan and Jim Kaat both fit the description. A player with strong and unique qualifications (Ryan) can overcome strong disqualifications, but a more ordinary player (Kaat) cannot.

12.

This player, currently embroiled in a Hall-of-Fame controversy, hit .245 with no home runs as a regular first baseman for a pennant winner.

in: 4, out: 6

In the media, especially on talk shows, Pete Rose is considered an automatic Hall-of-Famer for his on-field accomplishments. Breaking the rules is not his only disqualifier.

13.

In the last 10 years of his 16-year career, he averaged 21 HR, 86 RBI, and a .291 BA; primarily as a DH. Slugging is his primary qualification, yet he failed to hit 400 HR.

in: 4, out: 6

He was not a good fielder, and didn’t help his team on the base paths, so Jim Rice’s qualifications all came with a bat in his hands. I think the vote reflects the weakness of both his qualifications and disqualifications. The vote reflected my opinion that he falls just short of Hall-of-Fame standards.

14.

He won 20 games three times, but had just five ERAs under 3.00, despite pitching the entire decade of the ‘60s, and failed to win 300 games.

in: 5, out: 5

Jim Kaat was not a great pitcher. He was durable and reliable. Longevity created his qualifications, yet he couldn’t achieve the longevity magic number. His peak value didn’t approach Mel Stottlemyre (for example), also a three-time 20-game-winner, so his long career must show accomplishments that exceed Stottlemyre’s unusually short career.

15.

He won 20 games five times, but had just five ERAs under 3.00, despite pitching exclusively in the ‘60s and ‘70s, and failed to win 300 games.

in: 9, out 1

The pitcher described in #15, Jim “Catfish” Hunter, is obviously a notch above the pitcher described in #14. The greater peak value turned an even result into lopsided vote.

16.

This starter won only 224 games in 17 seasons, winning 20 games only once.

in: 5, out: 5

Jim Bunning’s disqualifications, stated this way, are not overwhelming. However, the even vote shows he’s a marginal candidate before his other qualifications are considered.

17.

This starter won only 224 games, and had a career ERA of 3.26, despite pitching exclusively in the ‘60s and ‘70s.

in: 5, out: 5

Jim “Catfish” Hunter has much in common with both Jim Bunning and Jim Kaat, not to mention Ferguson Jenkins, a very similar pitcher with a similar career. In a different era, a different ballpark, or with different teams, Hunter would be more analogous to Jack Morris (but of course, not as human beings). I’d probably vote for Hunter, remembering that fame is an important criterion, but as a peak-value-only candidate, he doesn’t approach Ron Guidry, who was a much better pitcher.

18.

Fans falsely blame his unspectacular .526 winning percentage on bad teams, but his very high ranking on the lifetime loss list was due to longevity and his own pitching. Most of his teams were above-average to good: they compiled a .507 winning percentage (in contrast, the Mariners have topped .507 only four times).

in: 9, out: 1

The voters were too knowledgeable to ignore the description of Nolan Ryan, even though I avoided saying he is third in all-time losses. Ryan’s dominance far exceeded his greatness. He is an example of a legitimate longevity candidate, yet fame is his overwhelming qualification. His unique qualifications make it difficult to name another pitcher who might be able to overcome the stated disqualifications.

19.

His considerable accomplishments, all offensive, included assaulting fans and reporters. He wreaked violence on baseballs with his bat, and on men, women, and children without it.

in: 6, out: 4

This describes an active player who has already amassed some qualifications: Albert Belle. The voters consistently rejected social (non-Sabermetric) disqualifications in this survey. In discussion, people were quick to mention Ty Cobb. Belle was suspended in college and a couple of times in the minors before receiving multiple suspensions in the majors. He received more chances than Steve Howe, who is usually regarded by fans as the standard-bearer of getting away with bad or illegal behavior. Both players disgraced the game, but Howe only hurt himself, his family, and his teammates. Belle should have been expelled before he kills somebody.

20.

The 11% of Hall-of-Fame pitchers who gave up more home runs than this righty all won at least 30 more games and allowed at least .39 fewer ER/9 IP. He also had fewer shutouts per start than any Hall-of-Famer.

in: 6, out: 4

I had to do a lot of research to state Jack Morris’ disqualifications in this way. He may have been the only player whose identity was invisible to all the voters. While the described pitcher appears to fall short of Hall-of-Fame standards, and actually does in this case, the balanced vote shows the voters needed more information. The vote is a good control for showing the voters avoided knee-jerk reactions when they didn’t know what player was being described.

21.

This starter won 287 games, but won fewer than 15 games in eight consecutive seasons.

in: 7, out: 3

Bert Blyleven had other disqualifications (see #37), but I would vote for him, too.

22.

Playing primarily 1B after proving he couldn’t play his original position, he peaked at 14 HR (92 career) and his four best RBI totals were 70, 80, 90 and 100. He did not play in the dead-ball era.

in: 2, out:8

Rod Carew was a consistent all-star at 1B. While I don’t think he should have been elected to the all-star teams or the Hall-of-Fame, I acknowledge that he was recognized as being that great during his career. Although Carew had no power, see my comments about “novelty” players in the “Superstars” article.

23.

These “twin” shortstops were never regarded as similar by the media. Both came up the same year and played for successful teams. Player B played four more years. Both were also very similar to Hall-of-Famer, Luis Aparicio. Player A was a consistent defensive star; he has the second highest career fielding percentage at shortstop, but won just two gold glove awards. He is 8^th in career assists. Strat-O-Matic rated him a SS-1 nine consecutive seasons, his career average rating was 1.6.* Player B won five gold glove awards and Strat-O-Matic rated him a SS-1 eight times, but his average rating was 2.0 due to mediocrity before and after his greatness. He is 9^th in career assists; Aparicio is 2^nd. Aparicio stole 506 bases with a 78% success rate, Player A stole 318 bases with a 75% success rate, and Player B stole 321 bases with a 75% success rate. Player A hit just .260 with a .300 OB Pct. and a .320 slugging percentage. Aparicio topped him by .002, .011, and .023. Player B topped Aparicio by .005, .011, and .014.

Player A in: 3, out: 7

Player B in: 2, out: 8

As a fan, I always thought that Player A, Larry Bowa, was underrated; and Player B, Dave Concepcion, was overrated. The stated data, and the fact that Concepcion got 67 votes this year and Bowa is off the ballot support my observation. Concepcion played longer to match Bowa’s longevity accomplishments. See my comments about The Big Red Machine in #8. In spite of Concepcion’s current support, the voters didn't easily identify either player; several thought one of the players must be Ozzie Smith. I don’t think you can find a pairing where the “if Reese, then Rizzuto” logic applies better than with Bowa and Concepcion. Bowa was a little better defensively; Concepcion was a little better offensively. I mentioned that Smith has a twin, but Omar Vizquel’s career barely overlapped Smith’s, and we don’t know what Vizquel will do the rest of his career. FYI:

24.

He had 39 or more starts in his three best seasons in the ‘60s, yet failed to win 20 games in any of them.

in: 6, out: 4

Those 19-win seasons are probably the reason the BBWAA didn’t elect Jim Bunning.

25.

He drove in 83 or more runs in 11 consecutive seasons, averaging 89 RBI per season for his career, and won five Gold Glove awards, but only played 15 years and never played in the post-season.

in: 10, out 0

You have to stretch to find reasons why Ron Santo isn’t a Hall-of-Famer.

26.

This OF’s five sub-.250 BAs were scattered throughout his career (he did not play in the ‘60s). He hit .272 lifetime, topping .300 once. He hit 20 or more HR in 11 of 12 seasons.

in: 4, out: 6

Dwight Evans seems to be popular with SABR members, yet nobody perceived him as a potential Hall-of-Famer until late in his career. He was an average hitter, which is enough reason to exclude an outfielder without unique or otherwise compelling accomplishments. He benefits from longevity, especially in the way a long career averages in mediocre seasons.

27.

He was a superstar in his prime, but averaged just .256 with 8.6 HR in the 16 full and partial seasons surrounding his prime. That includes ten BAs at or below .250. Although he was a “1” and a gold-glover in his prime, Strat-O-Matic rated him a “3” at his key defensive position nine times, and a “4” twice in the surrounding years.*

in: 1, out: 9

Joe Morgan was as good as any second baseman in history in his prime. He was an average ballplayer for many years before that, and many years after that. He was below average for at least a couple of seasons. Morgan belongs in the Hall-of-Fame, but like other members of The Big Red Machine, he is grossly overrated on the all time greats lists.

28.

The statistical qualifications of this pitcher are hard to dispute, but he was convicted of possession of cocaine.

in: 7, out: 3

Ferguson Jenkins has had a rough life. Most of the judges believe a conviction can be viewed in context of a player’s career and life. Without formal criteria, we have the luxury of not having to draw lines… no matter who snorts them.

29.

This OF scored 100 runs seven times and hit .293 with just 149 HR. He was never respected for his defense, playing primarily LF despite his speed. He is not Tim Raines, but his career is remarkably similar.

in: 3, out: 7

Lou Brock was too good to call a novelty player, but isn’t quite a Hall-of-Famer unless you believe the SB records alone are important enough to qualify him.

30.

You could argue that he was the most valuable pitcher of his era, yet he pitched only 12 seasons, and had a lifetime losing record.

in: 7, out: 3

Bruce Sutter was an extremely effective pitcher in his short career. The lack of longevity is probably the biggest reason he has been bypassed by the BBWAA. However, too many other relief pitchers had impressive shooting-star careers (e.g. Dan Quisenberry, Sparky Lyle, Tom Henke, and Dave Smith). Wouldn’t you have enjoyed seeing Quisenberry, a Hall-of-Fame human being by many accounts, elected while he was alive?

31.

This first baseman hit over .300 in seven of eight seasons, but hit 30 home runs only once, and 20 home runs five other times. His highest batting average was .319.

in: 7, out: 3

Steve Garvey played in a pitcher’s park and had a short career. Yet, his numbers were too ordinary for a first baseman.

32.

He or she hit four home runs as a first baseman in a six-year span in 2,587 at-bats.

in: 5, out: 5

(Pete) Rose would have been a superstar in a women’s league where home runs are rare. His unusual circumstances allowed him to play long beyond the loss of his skills.

33.

Although his numbers fall just short of a recently elected Hall-of-Famer who played the same position in the same era, this defensive star hit only .219 in his sophomore jinx season, and failed to reach .260 nine other times. He is fourth in all-time HR at his position, but never hit .300.

in: 7, out: 3

The voters liked defensive stars, and Gary Carter was more than just that. Those who consider Carlton Fisk a marginal candidate would probably have to exclude Carter.

34.

He was a regular starter for just ten years, but was as good as any pitcher in baseball during those years. He finished among the top 15 qualifiers in ERA every year he was eligible. Two Hall-of-Famers had very similar short careers for similar reasons: Dizzy Dean and Sandy Koufax, especially if you adjust Koufax's ERA to account for the larger strike zone and higher mound (1962-1966) and great pitcher’s park. He won 20 more and lost 8 more games than Dean, and won 5 more and lost 4 more than Koufax. His hit ratio, walk ratio, hit+walk ratio, and strikeout ratio all fall between the two. He had the same number of shutouts as Dean. The five-time gold glove winner only won 20 games three times because he made 17 relief appearances during the three other seasons he won 16 or more.

in: 7, out: 3

At least one voter commented that Dean shouldn’t have been elected as an explanation for his “out” vote. Ron Guidry, in my opinion, is the best eligible pitcher not in the Hall-of-Fame. He may have slit his own throat by volunteering to pitch in relief after the Cliff Johnson (.184-hitting backup catcher)-Rich Gossage fight put the latter on the DL in ‘79. Had he started the ’77 season in the rotation and stayed in the rotation in ’79, Guidry would have had five or six 20-win seasons. His career also illustrates that playing for numbers (e.g. Randy Johnson winning #20 in relief in game #162 or Mark McGwire sitting out game #162 to preserve a .200 batting average) is far more lucrative than playing to win.

35.

His RBI total ranks high on the all-time list (RBI are his sole qualification), but Jose Canseco, Jim Rice, Bob Horner, Joe Carter, Jay Buhner, Dick Stuart, Danny Tartabull, Darryl Strawberry, Ruben Sierra, Kevin Mitchell, George Bell, and Will Clark are among many players from his era who drove in more runs per game.

in: 2, out: 8

Tony Perez ranks 18^th on the all-time RBI list because he hit behind Rose, Morgan, Foster, Bench, and other stars; and he played 23 years. He was a good clutch hitter, but not a great one.

36.

He was elected to congress as a Republican.

in: 2, out: 8

I put this choice in for humor as much as any other reason, but obviously BBWAA and Veteran’s Committee members have their own political biases. Based on nothing but stereotypes, I suspect that Jim Bunning’s service as a Republican congressman helped him get elected. I have found room in my heart to forgive people for being Republicans, but I probably won’t make a habit of it. Contemporary players are too rich to be anything but Republicans. The Veteran’s Committee may have deliberately or inadvertently helped Bunning get elected to the senate.

37.

This righty pitched a no-hitter and compiled ERAs under 4.00 in his first 12 seasons, but allowed 50 HRs in one season.

in: 6, out: 4

The voters believed Bert Blyleven’s infamous record was not sufficient reason for exclusion.

38.

In his last 11 years, this 1B-DH averaged .271 with 11 HR, 42 R, and 57 RBI.

in: 2, out: 8

The two “in” votes surprised me as much as any. Tony Perez put up numbers that would have been ordinary for a player at any position during that era. Rose and Perez, platooning at 1B in 1986, combined to hit .236 with 2 HR in 437 AB.

39.

This outfielder hit in the .220s three times as a regular in a hitter’s era.

in: 4, out: 6

Dale Murphy would be a Hall-of-Famer if he could’ve hit the league average in his last decade.

40.

He won 20 games four times and an ERA title, but had a 20-loss season, only won 229 games, and had a 3.30 ERA despite having his best year in the ‘60s.

in: 4, out: 6

Luis Tiant didn’t have many average or mediocre seasons. He was very good or very bad. Compare him with Hunter, and his case is stronger, but I think the vote perfectly reflects the value of his candidacy.

41.

He stole money from us through tax evasion. Although documentation of other crimes is substantial, that is his only conviction. Should this convicted criminal, or any convicted criminal, be allowed into the Hall-of-Fame?

in: 8, out: 2

Pete Rose is not the only bad boy. As the national pastime, baseball in the aggregate may have some obligation to serve as a role model. In this era especially, I hate to see rich people get away with crimes. While I’m inclined to exclude convicts, I’m willing to weigh a conviction against other life and career factors.

42.

He won 20 games only twice, and just 209 in his 14-year career. Although his four consecutive 300 IP seasons may have contributed to his career-ending injury, his era and his ballpark greatly enhanced his career ERA (.89 higher on the road than at home). Orel Hershiser has had a very similar career.

in: 3, out: 7

Don Drysdale did well in the fame department, but his qualifications fall too far short for election. This is obvious when you note that his qualifications are stated as his disqualifications. He had other disqualifications as well.

43.

Although he once called himself the best player in the game, this OF hit just .275 in his last 12 years with an average of 18 HR and 80 RBI. He made the transition from cocaine-using bad boy to elder statesman during those years.

in: 3, out: 7

If Dave Parker had reached maturity by his baseball prime, he might have been as good as he thought he was. He has some impressive qualifications, but was neither great long enough nor very good over a whole career.