How to Decide Whether to Purchase a New Type of Consumer Electronics Product

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Introduction/Summary

Should you buy one of a variety of devices that play MP3s and other low-fidelity digital music formats, a DVD recorder, a multifunction pager, a palm-top computing device, a digital television, a digital home security system, or a "convergence" product? Which new digital technologies will gain long-term popularity, and how can you tell when the technology is mature? 

Instructions

Section 1: Compressed Digital Audio Playback Devices

1.  Wait until the legal issues and format wars have been resolved before buying a player, if you want the player to be able to play files that haven't been recorded yet. 

2.  Buy a device that plays a variety of formats (such as LiquidAudio, MP3, and Microsoft Windows Media Technologies 4) to hedge against fast obsolescence. 

3.  Buy a product that also plays "traditional" media (such as cassettes and CDs) so that the product will be useful after the compressed digital audio format is superceded by better technologies. 

4.  Buy an MP3 player only if you have a very large collection of MP3 files.

Warning

MP3 players manufactured in 1999 are not likely to be able to play SDMI-encoded MP3s. 

Section 2: Digital Video Products

1.  Buy a digital HDTV when you can afford it, if you live in the U.S. 

2.  Buy a DVD player if you want to play DVD movies, unless you are willing to wait a year for the first DVD-RAM recorders or 2 years for the better DVD recording technology. 

3.  Buy a digital camcorder if you want the features, digital-still-camera capabilities, or computer connectivity. Wait for tapeless digital camcorders if you want ultimate portability with greater reliability. 

4.  Buy an analog video product only if price is your primary consideration.

Section 3: Gadgets

1.  Buy a portable digital product if you are fully satisfied with its functionality and ease-of-use. 

2.  Buy a digital answering machine if you are willing to sacrifice recording time and sound quality for convenience and reliability. 

3.  Buy a new digital product when it costs less than a previous, comparable analog product, and doesn't sacrifice quality. 

4.  Buy new digital toys when enough software is available to prevent your child from quickly demanding the new, better technology. 

5.  Buy a digital business product if you are confident it will increase your productivity.

Tip

New digital technologies are superior to the current analog technologies about half the time, but usually have lower production costs and are more convenient to use.

Overall Tips

1.  Buy a product NOW if you want it regardless of other considerations stated in this article. Expect that you won't be able to buy it tomorrow if it doesn't become popular. 

2.  Remember that prices are high until product sales warrant mass production, if that happens. 

3.  Digital record/playback products that don't use removable media will be considerably more reliable than those that do. 

4.  Expect the first product(s) to market to lack the performance quality and features of the next generation. 

5.  Consider whether competitive, copyright, or other legal issues threaten the survival of the new product category, or could result in changes to its usefulness. 

Overall Warning

This information was published November 1999. Its usefulness expires in 1 year or less.